Thursday, September 27, 2007

Iowa & New Hampshire in a compressed Primary Season

In this front loaded primary season; the media would have you believe that the old rules still apply! This is the same media that is anointing the partisan leaders in the two party marathon for their respective nominations.

The fallacy is that when the primaries started moving up on the calendar and Super Duper Tuesday, February 5th, was filling up with California and New York the pundits said this was totally to the benefit of the Frontrunner/s! But, as the primaries and caucuses filled in the survivability of all the contenders changed. Every Democrat can stay through the California plus Tuesday elections. Delegates are selected in varying formulas; using the CA model any candidate that crosses the 15% threshhold will get delegates to Denver in the summer. The junior senator from New York is in it with a lot of cash until the end. The junior senator from Illinois can also afford to be in it through February. The next two candidates of Senator John Edwards and Governor Bill Richardson can both afford and have the grassroots operations that will guarantee a strong February showing. The two senior senators from Connecticut & Deleware can also stay in until February though they might be the first who drop out. Congressman Kucinich is in it for the message and will hold on with delegates to Denver! Lastly, the former senator from Alaska, I hope he returns home to run against Ted Stevens, will last for his message as well.

What does all this activity portend? In my humble opinion it portends the strongest possibility of a brokered or a small d democratic convention in Denver for the Democratic Party. There will be so many delegates attributed to the field of eight, that no one candidate will lock it up before the gavel is sounded on the first night!

The scenario under the classic rules was that you were bound as a delegate to the person you ran to represent, with the exception of uncommitted party leaders, until they released you. Under the DNC rules you are bound through the first ballot. If Senator Clinton is not the presumptive nominee or negotiates a first ballot victory; then the nominee can well be another. The band wagon delegates, the opportunist delegates in CA for example who ran after the primary, and those who are smarting under the bare knuckle bruising of the primary; they will look around the room and become the new majority for another nominee for 2008! You read it here and I will either be part of the vanguard for new politics, or "how could you have been so naive"?

No comments: